IL COVID-19 Update #131

SUMMARY OF REPORT

1. Regions 7 and 8 will start mitigation Friday.
2. Regions 3 and 4 will most likely follow suit.
3. Regions 2, 6, 9, and 11 are approaching mitigation.
4. State positivity rates are increasing rapidly.
5. Chicago COVID numbers are approaching mitigation.
6. COVID Numbers
   • Tuesday: 3,714 new cases with 41 additional deaths
   • Monday: 3,113 new cases with 22 additional deaths
   • Sunday: 4,245 new cases with 22 additional deaths
   • Saturday: 3,629 new cases with 27 additional deaths
7. State Road Map
8. COVID Suggestions

REGIONS 7 AND 8 MITIGATION

As expected, the Governor’s office and the Illinois Department of Public Health announced additional mitigation efforts that will be implemented this Friday in Regions 7 and 8.

Regions 7 and 8 include Kankakee, Will, DuPage, and Kane counties.

Mitigation measures taking effect at 12:01 am on Thursday, October 23, 2020 in Regions 7 and 8 include the following:

Bars

• No indoor service;
• All outside bar service closes at 11:00 p.m.;
• All bar patrons should be seated at tables outside;
• No ordering, seating, or congregating at bar (bar stools should be removed);
• Tables should be 6 feet apart;
• No standing or congregating indoors or outdoors while waiting for a table or exiting;
• No dancing or standing indoors;
• Reservations required for each party; and
• No seating of multiple parties at one table.

Restaurants

• No indoor dining or bar service;
• All outdoor dining closes at 11:00 p.m.;
• Outside dining tables should be 6 feet apart;
• No standing or congregating indoors or outdoors while waiting for a table or exiting;
• Reservations required for each party; and
• No seating of multiple parties at one table.

Meetings, Social Events, Gatherings

• Limit to lesser of 25 guests or 25 percent of overall room capacity;
• No party buses; and

• Gaming and Casinos close at 11:00 p.m., are limited to 25 percent capacity, and follow mitigations for bars and restaurants, if applicable.

REGIONAL MITIGATION SCHEDULE

The following regions are in mitigation or have been announced for mitigation:

• Region 1 since October 3^rd and continue to rise
• Region 5 yesterday (effective Thursday)
• Regions 7 and 8 today (effective Friday)

This week, it is expected that the following regions will be announced for mitigation

• Region 3 – Wednesday
• Region 10 – Wednesday
• Region 4 – Thursday

REGIONS APPROACHING MITIGATION

The following regions bear very close monitoring as their numbers are also increasing but they have not yet hit triggers:

• Region 2 – 6.9% positivity rate and 7-days of hospitalization increase
• Region 6 – 7-Days of positivity increases. 2.5% if include U of I but are excluding so 7.6% and 2 days of hospital admission increases
• Region 9 – 7.3% positivity rate increasing 7 consecutive days & 5-consecutive days of hospital admission increases
• Region 11 -6.2% positivity rate and 5-days of hospitalization admission increases.

STATE COVID-19 IMPACT UPDATE

The statewide positivity rate is up to 5.4%. This rate has increased over 1 full percentage point in a week. Additionally, several thousands of new cases are reported each day.

In the last 24 hours there has been 3,714 new confirmed cases and 41 deaths.

IDPH is reporting a total of 350,875 cases, to date, including 9,277 deaths.

The state has conducted 6,888,314 tests to-date.

Additional information can be found here. COVID-19 stats by zip code can be found here.

 

CHICAGO COVID-19 IMPACT UPDATE

Chicago will reach mitigation if the testing shows a positivity over 5% and R0 factor over 1%. Chicago has exceeded both measures. Chicago is also looking at its hospitalization numbers which it fully expects to creep higher in response to the sharp rise in COVID numbers.

The per day averages citywide as of October 18th is 561 confirmed cases, 10,960 tests completed, and 3 deaths (based on a 7 day rolling average).

To date, there has been 89,920 confirmed cases in the City of Chicago with 3,017 confirmed deaths and a 5.8% positivity rate.

Additional information may be found here where you may select different data points such as zip code, ethnicity, age, gender, cases, tests, death, etc.

 

CURRENT REGION METRICS UPDATE

If the regions meet the metrics outlined below, then they COULD be subject to restrictions or mitigations outlined HERE.

You may find the regional metrics HERE.

 

Danger regions are marked in RED.

Region	Positivity Increases (7 Day Avg)	Hospital Admissions (7 Day Avg.)	<20% Med Surge Capacity	<20% ICU Surge Capacity	> 8% Positivity Rate (3 cons. days)
1. North	8	4	42%	50%	4 (11.8%)
2. North Central	7	2	42%	41%	0 (6.9%)
3. West Central	10	4	34%	33%	0 (7.5%)
4. Metro East	8	3	27%	46%	0(7.4%)
5. Southern	6	3	49%	64%	0 (8.2%)
6. East Central	6	6	33%	46%	0 (7.6%)
7. South Suburban	9	6	29%	25%	0 (8.3%)
8. West Suburban	8	4	28%	32%	0 (7.1%)
9. North Suburban	8	4	40%	51%	0 (7.5%)
10. Suburban Cook	8	4	28%	32%	0 (7.1%)
11. Chicago	9	5	25%	32%	0 (6.7%)

 

MITIGATION THRESHOLD METRICS

As you are aware from IRMA’s last notice, the Administration will now use the following metrics to determine whether or not a region is moving forward or backward.

1. Sustained increase in 7-day rolling average (7 out of 10-days) in the positivity rate and ONE of the following severity indicators:
   • Sustained 7-day increase in hospital admissions for a COVID-19 like illness;
   • Reduction in hospital capacity threatening surge capabilities (ICU capacity or medical/surgical beds < 20%)

OR

2. Three consecutive days averaging ≥ 8% positivity rate

 

REGIONS

1. NORTH: Boone, Carroll, DeKalb, Jo Daviess, Lee, Ogle, Stephenson, Whiteside, Winnebago
2. NORTH-CENTRAL: Bureau, Fulton, Grundy, Henderson, Henry, Kendall, Knox, La Salle, Livingston, Marshall, McDonough, McLean, Mercer, Peoria, Putnam, Rock Island, Stark, Tazewell, Warren, Woodford
3. WEST-CENTRAL: Adams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian, Greene, Hancock, Jersey, Logan, Macoupin, Mason, Mason, Menard, Montgomery, Morgan, Pike, Sangamon, Schuyler, Scott
4. METRO EAST: Bond, Clinton, Madison, Monroe, Randolph, St. Clair, Washington
5. SOUTHERN: Alexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Marion, Massac, Perry, Pope, Pulaski, Saline, Union, Wabash, Wayne, White, Williamson
6. EAST-CENTRAL: Champaign, Clark, Clay, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, De Witt, Douglas, Edgar, Effingham, Fayette, Ford, Iroquois, Jasper, Lawrence, Macon, Moultrie, Piatt, Richland, Shelby, Vermillion
7. SOUTH SUBURBAN: Kankakee, Will
8. WEST SUBURBAN: DuPage, Kane
9. NORTH SUBURBAN: Lake, McHenry
10. SUBURBAN COOK: Suburban Cook
11. CHICAGO: City of Chicago

You may view the regions and map of the regions here.

 

MITIGATION TIERS

Once a region meets the resurgence criteria, the following tiered menu of mitigation options will be considered. If sustained increases in health metrics continue unabated, further mitigations could be added from additional tiers.

 

SETTING	TIER 1	TIER 2	TIER 3
Bars and Restaurants	Reduced indoor dining and suspend indoor bar service	Suspend indoor dining and bar service	Suspend in-person dining; takeout only
Offices	Institute remote work for high risk individuals; continued emphasis on telework for as many workers as possible	Reduce office capacity with recommendations to resume remote work where possible	Institute remote work for all non-essential workers
Gyms	Reduce indoor capacity	Suspend organized indoor recreational activities	Suspend organized indoor and outdoor recreational activities
Retail	Reduce in-person capacity	Suspend in-person non-essential retail; online and curbside pick-up available for all	Suspend all non-essential retail; only essential retail open (i.e. grocery stores, pharmacies)
Salon and Personal Care	Institute temporary location shutdown tied to outbreak	Institute temporary location shutdown tied to outbreak with possible broader mitigations	Suspend salon and personal care operations

 

The metrics and mitigation information may be found HERE.