121 Report – CRMA – July 2015

Chicago Retail Merchants Association

POLL: MORE THAN 75% OF COOK COUNTY RESIDENTS OPPOSE

SALES TAX HIKE, PLUS MOST SAY THEY WILL SHOP ELSEWHERE

 

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                                                                CONTACT: Matt Butterfield
July 1, 2015                                                                                                                                                           312-545-5058 | matt@macstrategiesgroup.com

CHICAGO – In a poll conducted across Cook County on Tuesday evening, June 30, an overwhelming 75 percent of respondents say they oppose the 1 percent sales tax increase being proposed by Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, which would give Cook County the highest sales tax in the nation. Additionally, more than 45 percent say they will be more likely to shift to online shopping to avoid Cook County sales taxes, plus more than 68 percent say they would become more likely to shop outside Cook County. The poll was conducted by We Ask America and the Chicago Retail Merchants Association, a committee of the Illinois Retail Merchants Association.

“Consumers in Cook County are already paying a high sales tax, and they have made it clear they do not want to pay even more,” said Rob Karr, president, Chicago Retail Merchants Association. “Across demographic lines, respondents are clear that they are likely to avoid the Cook County sales tax by shopping online or traveling to neighboring counties – as a result, Cook County will not raise the revenue they expect and their problem only gets worse.”

 

POLL RESULTS:

1.      According to published reports, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle is considering raising the county sales tax by a percentage point to 10.25%. She says the move may be necessary to pay for pension debt and other spending. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of raising Cook County’s sales tax in order to pay for pension debt?

Approve          21.09 %

Disapprove     75.02%

Undecided       3.88%

 

2.      If the sales tax is increased, would that make you more likely or less likely to shop more online to avoid the increase?

More likely     45.77%

Less likely       36.82%

Undecided       17.41%

 

3.      If the sales tax is increased to 10.25% or more, would that make you more likely, or less likely to shop outside of Cook County to pay less?

More likely     68.66%

Less likely       22.49%

Undecided       8.86%

 About Chicago Retail Merchants Association

Chicago Retail Merchants Association (CRMA), a committee of the Illinois Retail Merchants Association (IRMA), is dedicated to protecting the retail industry in the City of Chicago. Employing one in every five Chicagoans and generating 1/3 of local tax revenues, today, more than ever before, it is necessary for the retail industry to have a firm, solid footing in the activities of local government. CRMA is the voice for retailers in the City of Chicago.

 

Poll Methodology

This poll was conducted on June 30, 2015, using both automated (recorded) and live calls. In all, 1,006 Cook County residents completed all questions on the poll from both landlines and cell phones. The Cook County residents dialed were randomly selected using our proprietary registered-voter database to assure the greatest chance of providing an accurate cross-section of opinion from the countywide sample. Our sampling methodology ensures that We Ask America poll results are “projectable,” meaning that if every resident in a given geography were dialed, the results would not differ from the reported poll results by more than the stated margin of error at a 95% confidence level (the industry standard), if the same survey was repeated.  For this case, results with a margin of error of ±3.1 % at the 95% confidence level means that if the same survey were conducted 100 times, then 95 times out of 100 the results would not vary in either direction by more than 3.1% in either direction.  No weighting measures were applied to the results to correct for over/under-sampling since it was determined those changes would not make a significant difference.

POLL RESULTS

Cook County Sales Tax Hike Poll

Illinois Retail Merchants Association

We Ask America logo

We Ask America™ Polls

 Date of Poll:  June 30, 2015

  Responses: 1,006 Likely Voters             Margin of Error:  ±3.1%

   1. According to published reports, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle is considering raising the county sales tax by a percentage point to 10.25%. She says the move may be necessary to pay for pension debt and other spending. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of raising Cook County’s sales tax in order to pay for pension debt?

 

 

Count

Percentage

Approve

  212

21.09%

Disapprove

  754

75.02%

Undecided

   39

3.88%

 

  2. If the sales tax is increased, would that make you more likely or less likely to shop more online to avoid the increase?

 

 

Count

Percentage

More likely

  460

45.77%

Less likely

  370

36.82%

Undecided

  175

17.41%

 

  3. If the sales tax is increased to 10.25% or more, would that make you more likely, or less likely to shop outside of Cook County to pay less?

 

 

Count

Percentage

More likely

  690

68.66%

Less likely

  226

22.49%

Undecided

   89

8.86%

 

Crosstabs by GENDER:                                                                       

SALES TAX APPROVAL
GENDER

Approve

Disapprove

Undecided

Total

   Female

20.28%

74.96%

4.76%

100.00%

   Male

22.60%

75.14%

2.26%

100.00%

   Total

21.09%

75.02%

3.88%

100.00%

SHOP ONLINE TO AVOID LOCAL TAX
GENDER

More likely

Less likely

Undecided

Total

   Female

42.09%

39.17%

18.74%

100.00%

   Male

52.54%

32.49%

14.97%

100.00%

   Total

45.77%

36.82%

17.41%

100.00%

SHOP OUTSIDE COOK CO
GENDER

More likely

Less likely

Undecided

Total

   Female

67.13%

23.20%

9.68%

100.00%

   Male

71.47%

21.19%

7.34%

100.00%

   Total

68.66%

22.49%

8.86%

100.00%

 

Crosstabs by ETHNIC GROUP:

SALES TAX APPROVAL
ETHNIC GROUP

Approve

Disapprove

Undecided

Total

   African American

19.56%

74.76%

5.68%

100.00%

   Asian

24.49%

71.43%

4.08%

100.00%

   Hispanic

17.54%

80.70%

1.75%

100.00%

   White

22.13%

75.53%

2.34%

100.00%

   Other/Refused

21.43%

72.32%

6.25%

100.00%

   Total

21.09%

75.02%

3.88%

100.00%


SHOP ONLINE TO AVOID LOCAL TAX
ETHNIC GROUP

More likely

Less likely

Undecided

Total

   African American

37.85%

47.95%

14.20%

100.00%

   Asian

46.94%

34.69%

18.37%

100.00%

   Hispanic

42.11%

35.09%

22.81%

100.00%

   White

51.49%

30.21%

18.30%

100.00%

   Other/Refused

45.54%

34.82%

19.64%

100.00%

   Total

45.77%

36.82%

17.41%

100.00%

 

SHOP OUTSIDE COOK CO
ETHNIC GROUP

More likely

Less likely

Undecided

Total

   African American

67.82%

23.97%

8.20%

100.00%

   Asian

57.14%

32.65%

10.20%

100.00%

   Hispanic

68.42%

22.81%

8.77%

100.00%

   White

68.51%

21.28%

10.21%

100.00%

   Other/Refused

76.79%

18.75%

4.46%

100.00%

   Total

68.66%

22.49%

8.86%

100.00%


METHODOLOGY:

This poll was conducted on June 30, 2015 using both automated (recorded) and live calls. In all, 1,006 Cook County residents completed all questions on the poll from both landlines and cell phones. The Cook County residents dialed were randomly selected using our proprietary registered-voter database to assure the greatest chance of providing an accurate cross-section of opinion from the countywide sample.

Our sampling methodology ensures that We Ask America poll results are “projectable,” meaning that if every resident in a given geography were dialed, the results would not differ from the reported poll results by more than the stated margin of error at a 95% confidence level (the industry standard), if the same survey was repeated.  For this case, results with a margin of error of ±3.1 % at the 95% confidence level means that if the same survey were conducted 100 times, then 95 times out of 100 the results would not vary in either direction by more than 3.1% in either direction.  No weighting measures were applied to the results to correct for over/under-sampling since it was determined those changes would not make a significant difference.

voters-oppose-cook-county-sales-tax-hike.jpg&maxw=708&q=100&cb=20150702000137&cci_ts=20150701145127

Crain’s Chicago Business has the story on our latest CRMA poll. Who likes a sales tax hike? Not too many… Here is the article:

Tax hikes are never popular, and Toni Preckwinkle’s proposal to raise the sales tax may not be an exception, even if it is eventually adopted by the Cook County Board.

A large majority of Cook County residents do not favor raising the tax to 10.25 percent, from 9.25 percent, to pay pension debt, according to a poll commissioned by the Illinois Retail Merchants Association, which opposes the increase. The hike is estimated to raise as much as $474 million a year.

Of the 1,006 likely voters surveyed, 75 percent said they disapprove of the plan, according to a poll yesterday conducted by We Ask America. Only 21 percent approved, while 4 percent were undecided.

A sales tax hike “is going to give us a headline we really don’t need, which is that we are going to be the highest sales tax in the nation,” said Rob Karr, CEO of the retail group.

Preckwinkle, president of the Cook County Board, has acknowledged that the sales tax hike is not popular, but says it is needed to fund the retirement plan for county workers after the Illinois General Assembly failed to pass a pension bill she backed. A portion of the tax hike also would be used to finance road improvements and other infrastructure projects.

“We are sensitive to the concerns of all Cook County businesses, and for that reason we believe it’s critical to create a stable county government with certainty around our tax structure,” a Preckwinkle spokesman said in a statement.

She has said a majority of the board will not approve a property tax hike, limiting her options. But she believes she can round up enough votes on the board to raise the sales tax. The survey underscores the difficulty of finding those votes, Karr said.

 “It would be pretty rare that there would be any revenue enhancements that are easy,” he said. “I think this probably falls in the category of one of the hardest.”

The survey also found that the sales tax hike would make people more likely to shop online or outside the county.

Nearly 69 percent said they would be more likely to shop outside the county if the sales tax were raised. Nearly 46 percent said the tax hike would make them more likely to shop on the Internet, while 37 percent said it would make them less likely. Nearly 9 percent were undecided.

The Preckwinkle administration has said it has factored a loss of sales in its estimate that the tax hike would raise $305.5 million in the fiscal year ending Nov. 30, 2016. In fiscal 2017, the first complete year the hike would be in place, it would raise $473.8 million.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The survey combined an unspecified mix of automated responses with live interviews. It also surveyed respondents on land lines and cellphones. We Ask America is a subsidiary of the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association.

TanyaTriche

Contact Information:

Tanya Triche

Vice President & General Counsel
312-726-4600
ttriche@irma.org